A place where Colorado Rockies baseball card collectors (all 3 of us) can waste some time reading about our favorite sport. The Rockies and their cards will be the primary focus, but I like to go off on tangents as well so anything and everything baseball related may be covered here.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

2012 Quarry Predictions - The Make Fun of Me for Being Wrong Post

Since the Marlins-Blue Jays trade is still in limbo, I figured I would use this week's Hot Stove Roundup time to review my pre-season predictions.  It is the perfect week to do that since the season awards were just given out.  I know the World Series is supposed to be the end of the season, but to me the season awards being handed out means the 2012 season is officially over.  Around the All Star break, I had a mid-season review of my predictions and it was pretty bad to say the least.  Did I manage to turn it around or did I possibly do worse than 5 right out of 30?  Let's take a look.

AL EAST
My Predicted Order
1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. New York
2. Baltimore (WC2)
3. Tampa Bay
4. Toronto
5. Boston



In the midseason review Boston was still in 4th, so 1 of my 2 correct changed.  I was sure 2012 would finally be the year that age and poor pitching depth caught up with the Yankees, but not yet.  After I picked Baltimore as my breakout team in 2011, I cooled on them in favor of Toronto as my breakout team.  It looks like I might have been a year early on both of them.  Boston looks like they might be in the basement in this division for a few years.



AL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. Detroit
2. Kansas City (WC2)
3. Minnesota
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago

Actual Order = 2 correct
1. Detroit
2. Chicago
3. Kansas City
4. Cleveland
5. Minnesota


Alright, I got two guaranteed correct with the Tigers and the Indians falling into place, although it took a massive collapse from Chicago for that to happen.  Speaking of the White Sox, I was wrong because I thought they would be horrible in 2012, but they were only horrible in September.  Kansas City is going to breakout soon, but it will probably happen in a year that I pick them last.  So, Royals fans get your bribes ready because my 2013 predictions are only a few months away.  What happened to the Twins?  As soon as they signed Mauer to that huge deal, they have basically fallen apart.  It will probably be a while before they are good again.


AL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Seattle
4. Oakland

Actual Order = 1 correct
1. Oakland
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Los Angeles
4. Seattle


Hey, another point for me although it was definitely a surprising one.  I picked Oakland to have the worst record in the league.  Yeah I was wrong, but really even in September who saw Oakland winning this division.  The Angels were an expensive disappointment, although the future could be bright with Mike Trout's emergence.  The Mariners were by far the best last place team in the league.  I don't think there is anyone happier than Seattle that the Astros will be here next year.


AL AWARDS
Predictions
MVP - Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
Cy Young - David Price, Tampa Bay
ROY - Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player - Adam Dunn, Chicago
Biggest Disappointment - Bobby Valentine, Boston


Actual = 1 correct
MVP - Miguel Cabrera - Detroit
Cy Young - David Price - Tampa Bay
ROY - Mike Trout - Los Angeles
Comeback Player - Fernando Rodney - Tampa Bay

YAHOO!  I have never gotten one of these correct and I do feel David Price was deserving of the Cy Young.  It almost makes up for him getting robbed by Felix Hernandez in 2010, which almost made up for Felix getting robbed by Zack Greinke in 2009.
 
My MVP choice in Albert Pujols did finish 17th in the voting, but it's hard to think that 2012 was anything other than a disappointment from Pujols.  I am not going to say anything about the actual winner other than I think the right choice was made.

For Rookie of the Year, Trout was hyped quite a bit, but not as much as Matt Moore.  I fell into the hype machine and picked Moore who had a decent year that builds hope for his future, but it didn't come close to living to his hype.

The biggest travesty in the voting in my mind was awarding the Comeback Player of the Year to Fernando Rodney.  He had one of the best seasons ever for a reliever, but what exactly did he come back from?  Last year he was a decent reliever, but not bad enough to say he has to have a big comeback to save his career, unlike Adam Dunn.  Although I wish Lew Ford had gotten the award because he came back from more than anyone in the AL.

There is no award for biggest disappointment, but if there was I think Bobby Valentine would not only win the award...it should named for him.  This would be almost as big a no brainer as Rookie of the Year.


NL EAST
My Predicted Order
1. Philadelphia
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Atlanta (WC2)
4. Washington
5. New York

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (WC1)
3. Philadelphia

4. New York
5. Miami

The score will read that I got 0 correct, but I am taking partial credit for Atlanta's wild card.  This season for the Nationals will probably be looked by future baseball fans much like Atlanta's season in 1991.  The beginning of a dynasty.  The one thing that may stop that from happening would be the Braves.  They have a nice young team as well and I think the Nats/Braves rivalry will be the best of this decade.  The Phillies made a very nice comeback from a rough first half, but came up short in the long run.  This year was probably the end of a nice run by the Phils.  The Mets are a pretty unremarkable team right now, but they do have a few good pitching prospects on the way.  But then again, don't they always have 3-4 supposed to be great pitchers on the way?  The less said about the Marlins, the better.  At this moment, I hope they are contracted soon.

NL CENTRAL
My Predicted Order
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston

Actual Order = 2 correct
1. Cincinnati
2. St. Louis (WC2)
3. Milwaukee
4. Pittsburgh
5. Chicago
6. Houston


I was actually better with this division at mid-season when I had 4 correct.  The Reds were runaway winners here, although they laid an egg in the playoffs (or rather 3 in a row).  The Cardinals made one of their usual end of the year "sneak into the playoff" runs this year.  The Brewers were a nice surprise this year.  I figured losing Prince and trading Greinke at mid-season would have had them with 10-15 fewer wins.  Oh, but for the Pirates.  Once again, it looked like their losing streak would come to an end before an end of the year collapse made it continue yet again.  If Seattle is the happiest city about the Astros moving, the least happy city (other than Houston) is probably Chicago.  They will now probably be a last place team again.  Houston sucked this year, traded away everyone, and are now an AL franchise.


NL WEST
My Predicted Order
1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. Los Angeles
5. San Diego

Actual Order = 0 correct
1. San Francisco
2. Los Angeles
3. Arizona
4. San Diego

5. Colorado

I stated in my prediction that this was the toughest division to predict and that I wouldn't be surprised if my predicted order was reversed.  As it turns out, the reverse was closer to correct than the actual prediction.  The Giants had a great year, but they are still the spawn of Satan.  The Dodgers tried to become the West Coast Yankees and turned into the West Coast Mets with an expensive collapse.  Hard to believe that cherry-picking a last place team doesn't turn you into a division winner.  heeheehee  I laugh now, because the next few years will be bad for my team because of the Dodgers trying to buy the West.  The D-Backs and Padres were middling and boring.  My Rockies were injury-plagued and if healthy I think this team was at least a 3rd place team.


NL AWARDS
Predictions
MVP - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
ROY - Drew Pomeranz, Colorado
Comeback Player - Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Biggest Disappointment (tie) - Gio Gonzalez, Washington; Trevor Cahill, Arizona


Actual = 0 correct
MVP - Buster Posey - San Francisco
Cy Young - R.A. Dickey - New York
ROY - Bryce Harper - Washington
Comeback Player -Buster Posey - San Francisco

Pittsburgh's September collapse happened because of McCutchen's September collapse.  At mid-season, he was the MVP in a walk, but his bad second half led to a 3rd place finish.  Posey had a nice year, but he is still named after both a yappy dog and a flower.

Quick, raise your hand if you picked R.A. Dickey as the Cy Young winner before the year.  I'm willing to bet there were more fans that had never heard of Dickey than picked him to win.  The 2012 season for the 38 year old knuckleballer was a great story.  Cole Hamels had a great year, but not Cy Young great.  He did get enough points in the Cy Young voting to finish tied for 8th.

The only reason I didn't pick Bryce Harper to win this award was because I didn't think he would be in Washington before July or August.  Drew Pomeranz was one of the many disappointments for the Rockies, and much like my AL pick Matt Moore, got 0 votes in ROY voting.

Posey also won comeback player, and he did make a nice comeback from a horrific injury.  I wish they awarded this for a different great comeback.  My vote would have went to Braves pitcher Ben Sheets.  This guy was one of the best pitchers in the league with the Brewers in the mid-2000s, but injuries had kept him out of the league since 2008, save a 10 game stint with the 2010 Oakland A's.  His comeback in 2012 was a great story and deserving of this award.

I whiffed on biggest disappointment and admitted it in mid-season.  My problem was that usually when Oakland pitchers leave that cavernous stadium they fall apart.  However, Gonzalez went to an equally cavernous Washington stadium and turned in a season in which he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting.  Cahill was rather average for the D-Backs, but he was technically better than he was in 2011 with Oakland so it's hard to call him a disappointment.  I am sticking with my mid-season pick of Jeremy Guthrie as the year's biggest disappointment, although the Pirates collapse could be up there as well.


PLAYOFFS
Predictions
Wild Card
Texas over KC
Atlanta over Miami

Division Round
Colorado over Atlanta
Philly over St. Louis
Tampa Bay over Texas
Detroit over LA

Championship Series
Philly over Colorado
Detroit over Tampa Bay

World Series
Detroit over Philly

WS MVP - Justin Verlander, Detroit


Actual
Wild Card = 2 of 4 teams correct / 0 of 2 winners correct
Baltimore over Texas
St.Louis over Atlanta

Division Round = 2 of 8 teams correct / 1 of 4 winners correct
San Francisco over Cincinnati
St. Louis over Washington
New York over Baltimore
Detroit over Oakland

Championship Series = 1 of 4 teams correct / 1 of 2 winners correct
San Francisco over St. Louis
Detroit over New York

World Series = 1 of 2 teams correct / 0 of 1 winner correct
San Francisco over Detroit

WS MVP - Pablo Sandoval - San Francisco


It is kind of amusing that both of my picks for winning the wild card games were the actual two losers of those games.  Playoff predictions are hard, especially when you only pick 4 correct playoff teams, but I did pick Detroit to be in the World Series.  It's a shame that they couldn't finish the task.  That means my streak of not picking the correct World Series winner before the season extends to 24 years.  That's right the last correct pre-season W.S. prediction I made was the 1988 L.A. Dodgers.  I really need to get one right soon because that fact continues to make me a little ill.


Overall, I got 5 correct picks for the season and picked the AL Cy Young winner and the AL pennant winner correctly.  So overall it wasn't a great year for me by any means.  In 2011, I got 9 correct picks and picked 4 of 8 playoff teams correctly (including one Division Series correct), but I didn't pick any award winners or pennant winners correctly.  I'm satisfied, but I hope to do even better in 2013.  Like I said bribes will be accepted to pick your team to be horrible.

Thanx for reading.

1 comment:

Joe Average Card Collector said...

Damn it, I'm going to pick the Rockies to win the west every year...they got to at least do it once!!!! Rosario was my ROY pick!!