A place where Colorado Rockies baseball card collectors (all 3 of us) can waste some time reading about our favorite sport. The Rockies and their cards will be the primary focus, but I like to go off on tangents as well so anything and everything baseball related may be covered here.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

2012 Season Predictions at the Halfway Point

Normally this is the day for the Todd and the Todd-lers portion of Rockies history, but with MLB starting the second half of the season I figured it was the perfect day for checking in with my 2nd annual pre-season predictions.  Not to worry, Todd and the Todd-lers Thursday will return next week for the handful of you that are actually following along.  For now, let's take a look back, while I cringe and laugh at my horrible prognostication and feel free to make fun of me in the comments.


My Predicted Order
1. Philadelphia
2. Miami (WC1)
3. Atlanta (WC2)
4. Washington
5. New York

Actual Order
1. Washington
2. Atlanta (WC2)
3. New York
4. Miami
5. Philadelphia

Okay, one division in and I am wrong on all five positions so far.  I am taking solace in the fact that I did predict the Braves to be the 2nd Wild Card, but there are three other teams within a half game of taking that spot.  I think Washington will fall apart before the end of the year because of the idiotic decision to shut down Strasburg, but there is almost no chance of the Phillies winning this division. 

My Predicted Order
1. St. Louis
2. Cincinnati
3. Pittsburgh
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston

Actual Order
1. Pittsburgh
2. Cincinnati (WC1)
3. St. Louis
4. Milwaukee
5. Chicago
6. Houston

I am a little proud of myself here having 4 of the 6 places correct so far and I am not too far away from being perfect here.  I really hope the Pirates can maintain in the second half and not fall apart like last year.  In fact, I am making them my rooting interest for the rest of the season because my team is doing nothing.  This division is divided symmetrically into the haves and have-nots.  I could see any of the top three winning this division.

My Predicted Order
1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. San Francisco
4. Los Angeles
5. San Diego

Actual Order
1. Los Angeles
2. San Francisco
3. Arizona
4. Colorado
5. San Diego

Ouch, once again.  I did preface that there was not a lot of difference between these five clubs and it wouldn't be surprising to see any of the five win the division.  Any of the top three could win this thing (assuming Arizona is not a seller) and I think the one that makes the best trade at the deadline will come out on top.  The only thing I am hoping for with my Rockies is to not be the worst team in franchise history.  Both the 1993 and 2005 teams finished 67-95...it's gonna be close, but it's looking like this will be the worst year in Colorado history.

My Predicted Order
1. Tampa Bay
2. Toronto
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Baltimore

Actual Order
1. New York
2. Baltimore (WC2)
3. Tampa Bay
4 (tie). Boston
4 (tie). Toronto

I really suck at Eastern picks.  I guess I can consider myself getting a half a point with Boston being tied for 4th.  I thought the Yankees age would catch up with them finally, but apparently their deal with the devil runs at least one more year.  Baltimore was my surprise pick last year and I got burned.  I didn't want to make the same mistake again, so I picked the Jays as my surprise pick.  Lo and behold, it is looking like I made the same mistake again.

My Predicted Order
1. Detroit
2. Kansas City (WC2)
3. Minnesota
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago

Actual Order
1. Chicago
2. Cleveland
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Minnesota

Boy I stunk here.  Not only did I pick the White Sox to be last in the division, I thought they would be the 2nd worst team in the majors.  They have been one of better surprises of the season though.  This is almost exactly what happened last year in this division when I picked Cleveland last and they led at the All Star Break.  I still think Detroit will ultimately win this division, but the White Sox could be in the running for a wild card berth.

My Predicted Order
1. Los Angeles
2. Texas (WC1)
3. Seattle
4. Oakland

Actual Order
1. Texas
2. Los Angeles (WC1)
3. Oakland
4. Seattle

Even though so far I picked every spot wrong in this division, I don't think I will be far off from the being correct at the end of the year.  The Angels have been motoring since the horrible month of April and I think they will catch the Rangers before the end.  I picked Oakland to be the worst team in the majors and so far I am wrong.  I still they will be at the bottom of the division before it's all over.

My NL Predictions
MVP - Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
ROY - Drew Pomeranz, Colorado
Comeback Player - Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Biggest Disappointment (tie) - Gio Gonzalez, Washington; Trevor Cahill, Arizona

I am so far happy with my pick of McCutchen since he leads the league in BA and is close in homers and RBIs.  Challenges could come from Carlos Beltran, Joey Votto, and Carlos Gonzalez (if the Rockies get on a run).
Hamels was not that bad of a pick either since he is 10-4 at the moment, but he is probably looking up at R.A. Dickey, who no one probably picked to win.  Hamels probable only chance for winning is a trade to another NL club.
Rookie of the year is always a crap shoot. Pomeranz has been good, but has been in the minors most of the season.  I don't think anyone will take down the hype machine that is Bryce Harper, even if he is overrated.
Comeback player is one of those awards that is easy to predict, but hard to verify because its hard to tell who is eligible.  There is no stats machine for comebacks yet (that I know of anyway).  Wainwright has been decent enough though, so I'll stick with him.
I kind of bit the big one with biggest disappointment since Gio Gonzalez was an All Star and is tied for the league lead in victories.  Trevor Cahill hasn't been great, but he would be hard to call a disappointment at the moment.  So far I would probably call Jeremy Guthrie the biggest disappointment of the year, although Rickie Weeks and Tim Lincecum would be high on the list as well.

My AL Predictions
MVP - Albert Pujols, Los Angeles
Cy Young - David Price, Tampa Bay
ROY - Matt Moore, Tampa Bay
Comeback Player - Adam Dunn, Chicago
Biggest Disappointment - Bobby Valentine, Boston

I don't know that you could call Pujols a disappointment so far, but he hasn't been his old dominant self as of yet.  Right now, I would have to pick Josh Hamilton although rookie Mike Trout is making some serious noise.
I am still fairly confident with my pick of Price since he is leading the league in wins and was an All Star.  Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Chris Sale (who saw that coming) could factor in as well.
Matt Moore has been a tad disappointing so far, but the expectations for him were outrageous anyway.  Barring injury, no one is getting this award away from Mike Trout.
Adam Dunn has this award all but locked up.  I predicted a season line of .220/25/85 which he has nearly hit already.  40 homers is in the realm of possibilities.
I think I was correct in my pick of Valentine so far, although both the Royals' Eric Hosmer and the Mariners' Jesus Montero could qualify as well.

So far my division predictions (5 of 30 correct) have been historically awful.  In fact if you take out the NL Central, I have correctly picked 1 position correctly (and it was a tie) which is probably harder to do than getting them all right.  I think I have done relatively good with my awards prediction, though.  Who knows how the rest of the season will go, but as you can see from my picks I obviously don't.

Thanx for reading.

1 comment:

Jeff Laws said...

Serves you right for dogging my Sox. I predicted them behind the Tigers but I didn't think they would be as horrible as everybody else did. Although, I will admit, I predicted the Sox in 2nd because I figured the rest of the division would suck and not that I thought the Sox were that good. I got half that right I guess.