A place where Colorado Rockies baseball card collectors (all 3 of us) can waste some time reading about our favorite sport. The Rockies and their cards will be the primary focus, but I like to go off on tangents as well so anything and everything baseball related may be covered here.

Monday, July 4, 2011

2011 MLB Predictions - The Halfway Point

Sorry for my lack of posting last week, but honestly I didn't have a lot of time or desire to post anything.  I am hoping the week off from posting will rejuvenate me. 

Since we at the approximate halfway point for most teams, I figured a look back at my first half predictions was in order.  Some divisions I got very close so far...others, um, well, not so much.  Let's take a look at why I don't tend to bet sports.

NL EAST
Prediction
1. Braves
2. Phillies - WC
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

Actual
1. Phillies
2. Braves - WC
3. Mets
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

Well this is one of my better picked divisions.  I picked 2 playoff teams and as of now those 2 are in, just in a different order.  I still think my original order could still come to pass.

NL CENTRAL
Prediction
1. Brewers
2. Cardinals
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros

Actual
1. (tie) Brewers
1. (tie) Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Reds
5. Cubs
6. Astros

Has any team been a more pleasant surprise than the Pirates this year?  They have been bad for so long, I really hope they at least finish over .500.  This is another division that I was not too far off on.  I also predicted the Astros would be among the 3 teams in contention for the #1 pick next year and they have the worst record by about 5 games so far.  I said it would be a dogfight between 4 teams and it is, I thought the Cubs instead of the Pirates would be the 4th team though.

NL WEST
Prediction
1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

Actual
1. Giants
2. Diamondbacks
3. Rockies
4. Padres
5. Dodgers

Here is an example of a badly picked division.  I missed all 5 spots.  It could still change and I haven't lost faith in my Rockies yet, but no way are the Dodgers finishing 2nd.  The D-Backs are very surprising as well, although I can't say that is a pleasant surprise like the Pirates. 


AL EAST
Prediction
1. Red Sox
2. Rays - WC
3. Orioles
4. Yankees
5. Blue Jays

Actual
1. Yankees
2. Red Sox - WC
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

Here is another bad division for me.  I did pick the correct division for the Wild Card, but it's not exactly going out on a limb to pick the AL East for that honor since they get it almost every year.  I thought this might be the year age and injury might catch up to the Yanks, but it appears that while I was right...it still hasn't stopped them from winning.  The Orioles are my disappointing team of the year, I thought they might have it put together somewhat, but it looks like another high pick for them. 

AL CENTRAL
Prediction
1. Twins
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Indians

Actual
1. Indians
2. Tigers
3. White Sox
4. Twins
5. Royals

Oops.  If the Pirates aren't the feel good story of the year, then the Indians are.  They were one of the 3 teams, with the Astros and Jays, that I thought would be fighting for the #1 pick.  In reality, they would be in the playoffs as the #2 seed right now.  Could they still end up last?  Yes, and I don't see them holding onto a playoff spot but they should be a solid 2nd or 3rd in division.  The Twins, well that has just been injuries run amok. 

AL WEST
Prediction
1. Rangers
2. Athletics
3. Mariners
4. Angels

Actual
1. (tie) Rangers
1. (tie) Angels
3. Mariners
4. Athletics

Not TOO bad, but not great either, because I did not think the Angels had a chance this year (or for a few years to come).  Obviously I was wrong, so far.  The A's are another really big disappointment.  With the Moneyball movie coming out, I wonder if people will remember that Billy Beane has a grand total of 0 World Series titles with his sabermetrics.  Sure I am a little old-school, but wins are STILL more important than getting on base.


AWARD WINNERS
Predictions

NL MVP - Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NL Cy Young - Cole Hamels, Phillies
NL ROY - Freddie Freeman, Braves

AL MVP - Joe Mauer, Twins
AL Cy Young - Jon Lester, Red Sox
AL ROY - Kyle Drabek - Blue Jays




Tulo is probably not going to be the MVP, but he is a 2nd half star every year.  Hamels is definitely in the top 3 so far this year along with Halladay and Jurrgens, so I might get one right.  The NL Rookie of the Year is wide open at the moment with Freeman probably top 5, but no one is ahead of the game so far.

The AL picks are just not very good, but I am not a big AL fan either so it's okay.  Mauer has been hurt a lot and not very good when he wasn't hurt.  No chance there, Adrian Gonzalez or Jose Bautista would be my pick right now.  Lester is not a horrible pick, but he has been second tier at best this year.  Verlander or Weaver will probably get this one.  Kyle Drabek is probably not in the top 5 in AL rookie STARTERS, let alone all rookies.  Pineda or Hellickson should take this award.


The Playoffs haven't started obviously so I will save that recap for the end of the season.  All in all, I was very average with the team predictions (5 out of 8 playoff teams so far) and downright awful with the awards (1 correct if I am lucky).  I haven't looked at these predictions since I wrote them so I hope you have had as much fun as I have looking back.

Feel free to make fun of my ineptness in the comments section.